Professor of Mathematics,
Mathematical modeling and statistical analyses of infectious diseases
NCSU Statistics Department
2311 Stinson Drive
Campus Box 8203
Raleigh, NC 27695-8203
Office: 308 Cox Hall, North Carolina State University
Phone: 919 515-1910
Mail: Campus Box 8213, 308 Cox Hall,
North Carolina State University,
Raleigh, NC 27695-8213
Email: alun_lloyd@ncsu.edu
Biography
I studied mathematics at Trinity College, Cambridge, before moving to the Department of Zoology in Oxford to do a Ph.D. with Robert May, which I completed in 1996. The following three years in Oxford saw me doing my first postdoc, on a Medical Research Council Non-Clinical Fellowship, and a lectureship at St. Hilda’s College. In 1999 I moved to the US, for a four year stint as a Long-Term Member in the Institute for Advanced Study‘s Program in Theoretical Biology. I moved to my NC State faculty position in 2003.
Research
I am a mathematical biologist. The majority of my work concerns the epidemiology of infectious diseases, with a particular recent interest in mosquito-borne infections. I am a professor in the Department of Mathematics at North Carolina State University, I also direct the Biomathematics Graduate Program and the Research Training Group in Mathematical Biology.
Publications
- Lessler, J., Edmunds, W.J., Halloran, M.E., Hollingsworth, T.D. & Lloyd, A.L. (2014). Seven challenges for model-driven data collection in experimental and observational studies. Epidemics. In press. PDFdoi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.12.002
- Roberts, M., Andreasen, V., Lloyd, A. & Pellis, L. (2014). Nine challenges for deterministic epidemic models. Epidemics. In press. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.006 PDF
- Hollingsworth, T.D., Pulliam, J.R.C., Funk, S., Truscott, J.E., Isham, V. & Lloyd, A.L. (2014). Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases. Epidemics. In press. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.007 PDF
- Britton, T., House, T., Lloyd, A.L., Mollison, D., Riley, S. & Trapman, P. (2014). Eight challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission. Epidemics. In press. PDF
- Robert, M.A., Okamoto, K.W., Gould, F. & Lloyd, A.L. (2014). Anti-pathogen genes and the replacement of disease-vectoring mosquito populations: a model-based evaluation. Evol. Applic. 7:1238–1251. doi:10.1111/eva.12219 PDF Info.
- Guerra, C.A., Reiner, R.C., Perkins, T.A., Lindsay, S.W., Midega, J., Brady, O.J., Barker, C.M., Reisen, W.K., Harrington, L.C., Taken, W., Kitron, U., Lloyd, A.L., Hay, S.I., Scott, T.W. & Smith, D.L. (2014). An assembly of adult female mosquito mark-release-recapture data to inform vector-borne pathogen transmission models. Parasites and Vectors. 7:276. doi:10.1186/1756-3305-7-276 PDF
- Reiner, R.C., Stoddard, S.T., Forshey, B.M., King, A.A., Ellis, A.M., Lloyd, A.L., Long, K.C., Rocha, C., Vilcarromero, S., Astete, H, Bazan, I., Lenhart, A., Vazquez-Prokopec, G.M., Paz-Soldan, V.A., McCall, P.J., Kitron, U., Elder, J.P., Halsey, E.S., Morrison, A., Kochel, T.J., Scott. T.W. (2014). Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection estimates for dengue virus using 12 years of longitudinal serological data from Iquitos, Peru. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.111: E2694-E2702. doi:10.1073/pnas.1314933111 PDFPDF with Supp. Info.
- Okamoto, K.W., Robert, M.A., Gould, F. & Lloyd, A.L. (2014). Feasible introgression of an anti-pathogen transgene into an urban mosquito population without using gene-drive. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 8(7): e2827. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002827 PDF Info.
- Smith, D.L., Perkins, T.A., Reiner, R.C., Barker, C.M., Niu, T., Chaves, L.F., Ellis, A.M., George, D.B., Le Menach, A., Pulliam, J.R.C., Bisanzio, D., Buckee, C., Chiyaka, C., Cummings, D.A.T., Garcia, A.J., Gatton, M.L., Gething, P.W., Hartley, D.M., Johnston, G., Klein, E.Y., Michael, E., Lloyd, A.L., Piggot, D.M., Reisen, W.K., Ruktanonchai, N., Singh, B.K., Stoller, J., Tatem, A.J., Kitron, U., Godfray, H.C.J., Cohen, J.M., Hay, S.I. & Scott, T.W. (2014). Recasting the Theory of Mosquito-Borne Pathogen Transmission Dynamics and Control. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 108, 185-197. DOI:10.1093/trstmh/tru026 PDF
- Yarmand, H., Ivy, J.S., Denton, B. & Lloyd, A.L. (2014). Optimal Two-Phase Vaccine Allocation to Geographically Different Regions under Uncertainty. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 233, 208-219.
- Okamoto, K.W., Robert, M.A., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2013). A Reduce and Replace strategy for suppressing vector-borne diseases: Insights from a stochastic, spatial model. PLoS ONE 8(12):e81860. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0081860 PDF.
- Legros, M., Xu, C., Morrison, A., Scott, T.W., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2013). Modeling the dynamics of a non-limited and a self-limited gene drive system in structured Aedes aegypti PLoS ONE 8: e83354. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0083354 PDF
- Scholle, S.O., Ypma, R.J.F., Lloyd, A.L. & Koelle, K. (2013). Viral substitution rate variation can arise from the interplay between within-host and epidemiological dynamics. Am. Nat.182, 494-513.
- Robert, M.A., Okamoto, K., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2013). A Reduce and Replace strategy for suppressing vector-borne diseases: Insights from a deterministic model. PLoS ONE8(9): e73233. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0073233 PDF
- Walsh, R.K., Aguilar, C.L., Facchinelli, L., Valerio, L., Ramsey, J.M., Scott, T.W., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2013). Regulation of Aedes aegyptipopulation dynamics in field systems: Quantifying direct and delayed density dependence. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 89, 68-77. DOI:10.4269/ajtmh.12-0378
- Breen, M., Villeneuve, D.L., Ankley, G.T., Bencic, D.C., Breen, M.S., Watanabe, K.H., Lloyd, A.L. & Conolly, R.B. (2013). Developing Predictive Approaches to Characterize Adaptive Responses of the Reproductive Endocrine Axis to Aromatase Inhibition: II. Computational Modeling. Toxicol. Sci. 133, 234-247.
- Reiner, R.C., Perkins, T.A., Barker, C.M., Niu, T., Chaves, L.F., Ellis, A.M., George, D.B., Le Menach, A., Pulliam, J.R.C., Bisanzio, D., Buckee, C., Chiyaka, C., Cummings, D.A.T., Garcia, A.J., Gatton, M.L., Gething, P.W., Hartley, D.M., Johnston, G., Klein, E.Y., Michael, E., Lindsay, S.W., Lloyd, A.L., Piggot, D.M., Reisen, W.K., Ruktanonchai, N., Singh, B.K., Tatem, A.J., Kitron, U., Hay, S.I., Scott, T.W., & Smith, D.L. (2013). A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010. J. R. Soc. Interface. 10: 20120291. PDF
- Facchinelli, L., Valerio, L., Ramsey, J.M., Gould, F., Walsh, R.K., Bond, G., Robert, M.A., Lloyd, A.L., James, A.A., Alphey, L. & Scott, T.W. (2013). Field cage studies and progressive evaluation of genetically-engineered mosquitoes. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 7(1): e2001. PDF
- Legros, M., Xu, C., Okamoto, K., Scott, T.W., Morrison, A.C., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2012). Assessing the feasibility of controlling Aedes aegyptiwith transgenic methods: A model-based evaluation. PLoS ONE 7(12): e52235. PDF
- Robert, M.A., Legros, M., Facchinelli, L., Valerio, L., Ramsey, J.M., Scott, T.W., Gould, F. & Lloyd, A.L. (2012). Mathematical models as aids for design and interpretation of experiments: The case of transgenic mosquitoes. J. Med. Entomol. 49, 1177-1188.
PDFSupplementary information: Appendix 1, Appendix 2
- Capaldi, A., Behrend, S., Berman, B., Smith, J. & Lloyd, A.L. (2012). Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification for an epidemic model. Math. Biosci. Eng. 9, 553-576. PDF
- Durrett, R., Gleeson, J.P., Lloyd, A.L., Mucha, P.J., Shi, F., Sivakoff, D., Socolar, J. & Varghese, C. (2012). Graph fission in an evolving voter model. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 109, 3682-3687. PDF
- Walker, T., Johnson, P.H., Moreira, L.A., Iturbe-Ormaetxe, I., Frentiu, F.D., McMeniman, C.J., Leong, Y.S., Dong, Y., Axford, J., Kriesner, P., Lloyd, A.L, Ritchie, S.A., O’Neill, S.L. & Hoffmann, A.A. (2011). The wMel Wolbachiastrain blocks dengue and invades caged Aedes aegypti Nature 456, 450-453.
- Huang, Y., Lloyd, A.L., Legros, M. & Gould, F. (2011). Gene-drive into insect populations with age and spatial structure: A theoretical assessment. Evol. Applic. 4(3), 415-428.doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2010.00153.x
- Breen, M., Breen, M.S., Terasaki, N. Yamazaki, M., Lloyd, A.L. & Conolly, R.B. (2011). Mechanistic computational model of steroidogenesis in H295R cells: Role of oxysterols and cell proliferation to improve predictability of biochemical response to endocrine active chemicals. Toxicol. Sci. 123(1), 80-93.
- Legros, M., Magori, K., Morrison, A.C., Xu, C., Scott, T.W., Lloyd, A.L. & Gould, F. (2011). Evaluation of location-specific predictions by a detailed simulation model of Aedes aegypti PLoS ONE 6(7), e22701. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0022701 PDF
- Ward, C.M., Su, J.T., Huang, Y., Lloyd, A.L., Gould, F. & Hay, B.A. (2011). Medeaselfish genetic elements as tools for altering traits of wild populations: A theoretical analysis. Evolution. 65(4), 1149-1162. doi:10.1111/j.1558-5646.2010.01186.x
- Xu, C., Legros, M., Gould, F. & Lloyd, A.L. (2010). Understanding uncertainties in model-based predictions of the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 4(9), e830. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000830 PDFSupplementary information
- Arauz, L.F., Neufeld, K.N., Lloyd, A.L. & Ojiambo, P.S. (2010). Quantitative models for germination and infection of Psuedoperonospora cubensis in response to temperature and duration of leaf wetness. Phytopathology 100, 959-967.